[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Sep             25 Sep             26 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1221 1111
      Darwin               4   1221 1111
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Culgoora             4   1121 2---
      Canberra             3   1220 1101
      Hobart               5   1232 1111
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             3   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2221 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Sep    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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