[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Sep             24 Sep             25 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2121 2221
      Darwin               4   2111 221-
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Culgoora             5   1121 2221
      Canberra             5   1121 2221
      Hobart               5   2111 2221
      Casey(Ant)           8   2332 1211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1122 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Sep    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    16600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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