[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Sep             23 Sep             24 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 2111
      Darwin               3   2111 1012
      Learmonth            3   210- ----
      Culgoora             3   1111 2111
      Canberra             2   1101 2100
      Hobart               3   1111 2111
      Casey(Ant)           9   2332 3111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1222 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Sep    12    Unsettled 
23 Sep    11    Unsettled 
24 Sep    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Sep    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 407 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    56300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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