[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Sep             22 Sep             23 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1222 2111
      Darwin               4   1222 1112
      Learmonth            4   1112 1120
      Culgoora             4   1112 2112
      Canberra             3   0122 2001
      Hobart               4   1122 2111
      Casey(Ant)           8   2323 2121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2222 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Sep    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
      with depressions of 30% at Vanimo 13-19 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed
      at Darwin 13-17 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed at
      Hobart 09-20 UT. Disturbance observed at Hobart and
      Christchurch around 00-02 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Sep    24    near predicted monthly values 
22 Sep    24    near predicted monthly values 
23 Sep    24    near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:42%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 454 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   121000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"