[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1121 1211
      Learmonth            5   1211 2221
      Culgoora             4   1121 1212
      Canberra             4   1121 1211
      Hobart               5   2121 2211
      Casey(Ant)           7   2-32 1222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   1344 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Sep    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
      Spread F observed at Niue 09-11 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed at Darwin 09-10 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
      Spread F observed at Mundaring 14-20 UT and Hobart
      12-20 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep    24    near predicted monthly values 
21 Sep    24    near predicted monthly values 
22 Sep    24    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:42%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 545 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   198000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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