[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Sep             20 Sep             21 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar region 808 lost half its area over the last two 
days reducing from an area of 880 millionths of the solar disc 
on 16 September to 420 millionths of the solar disc on 18 September. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2333 2211
      Learmonth            7   2222 3111
      Culgoora             7   2223 2211
      Canberra             9   1333 2211
      Hobart               9   2333 2211
      Casey(Ant)          15   -443 2220
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2213 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Sep    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Sep    24    near predicted monthly values 
20 Sep    24    near predicted monthly values 
21 Sep    24    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 576 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   181000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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