[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 05

Sun Sep 18 09:56:34 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M9.8    0605UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 104/53

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   1222 3333
      Learmonth           11   1222 3432
      Culgoora             9   1222 3333
      Canberra             9   1212 3333
      Hobart              11   1223 3333
      Casey(Ant)          15   ---3 3333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   4434 3232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep    12    Unsettled 
19 Sep    11    Unsettled 
20 Sep    17    active 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : Began at 0100UT 14/09, Ended at 0025UT 16/09

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Sep    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 16 September 
and is current for interval 17-18 September (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 644 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   180000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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