[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Sep             26 Sep             27 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1112
      Darwin               2   1110 1112
      Learmonth            0   0--- ----
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             2   1001 1111
      Hobart               3   1111 1111
      Casey(Ant)           4   2221 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1331 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Sep     3    Quiet 
26 Sep     7    Quiet 
27 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Sep    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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