[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 11 09:53:12 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.8 09/2300UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0354UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0604UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.7 0614UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.9 0907UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X1.2 1643UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
M4.1 1937UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X2.1 2211UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 10 September as region
808(S09E43) produced two X, three M and several C-class
flares. The details of the major flares are as follows:
M3.7(0614UT), M1.9(0907UT), X1.1(1643UT), M4.1(1936UT)
and X2.1(2211UT). Due to particle contamination, high
proton flux and unavailability of some LASCO images, it
is not clear at this stage if any CME activity is associated
to these events or not. However, a Type II and a Type IV
radio bursts seem to be associated with the X1.8 flare with
an estimated shock speed of 1088 km/s. Also a full halo CME
has been associated to the X6 flare observed on 09 September.
This CME activity may result in the arrival of a shock and
strengthening of the solar wind stream on 11 September. A
recurrent coronal hole may also strenthen the solar wind
stream for a few days starting 12 September. Region 808
remains large in size and magnetically very complex. It
can produce more major flares during the next few days.
The >10MeV proton event that started at 0215UT/08 September
is expected to continue for the next 3 days, whereas, the
>100MeV proton event that started at 1925UT/08 September may
end by tomorrow. However, if major flare activities on the
sun continue, the proton flux may remain enhanced. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained slightly to moderately negative until 1400UT
and then showed fluctuations on both sides of the normal value
during the rest of the day, staying slightly to moderately
northwards for relatively longer time intervals. Solar activity
is expected to remain at high levels during the next
few days. A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind
at 0048UT on 10 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 22 2343 3454
Learmonth 25 2343 3554
Culgoora 17 2342 3444
Canberra 19 2343 3444
Hobart 20 2333 3454
Casey(Ant) 39 3-5- 5-55
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 121 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 1201 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 27 Mostly unsettled to active, minor and isolated
major storm periods possible.
12 Sep 18 Mostly unsettled to active, minor storm periods
possible.
13 Sep 18 Mostly unsettled to active, minor storm periods
possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 10 September
and is current for interval 10-11 September. Geomagnetic activity
may rise upto minor and sometimes major storm levels on 11 September
due a to a CME activity recorded on 09 September. The effect
of a recurrent coronal hole and the ongoing transient flow may
also keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced to minor storm levels
on 12 and 13 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal-poor Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 08 09 2005 0235UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal-fair Fair Poor
12 Sep Normal-fair Fair Poor
13 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: More shortwave fadeouts may be observed during the next
few days. HF conditions are expected to show minor to moderate
degradations on low and mid latitudes during the next three days.
Strong degradations on high latitudes are likely during this
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 60% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to
20%
12 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to
10%
13 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 10 September
and is current for interval 10-11 September. HF conditions may
show minor to moderate degradations in Aus/NZ regions during
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 63000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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