[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 12 09:50:43 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M8.9 10/2302UT probable lower West Pacific
M3.4 0235UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.0 1315UT possible lower European
M1.3 2042UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 11 September as region
808(S09E29) produced three M and some C-class flares. The
details of the major flares are as follows: M3.4(0235UT),
M3.0(1312UT) and M1.3(2040UT). The M3.0 flare has been
associated to a partial halo CME with an estimated shock
speed of 1960 km/s. Another full halo CME, with estimated
shock speed of 1750 km/s, was associated to the X2 flare
observed late on 10 September. Due to particle contamination,
high proton flux and unavailability of some LASCO images, it
is not clear at this stage if any more CME activity could be
associated to any other flare. A shock seems to have arrived
around 10 UT from the full halo CME, that was earlier
associated to the X6 flare observed on 09 September. More
shocks may arrive during the next few days as the region 808
is continuing to produce major flare and still remains large
and very complex.A recurrent coronal hole may also strenthen
the solar wind stream for a few days starting 12 September.
The >10MeV proton event that started at 0215UT/08 September
is expected to continue for the next 2 days, whereas, the
>100MeV proton event that started at 1925UT/08 September has
already ended at 0545UT/11 September. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed some fluctuations
on both sides of the normal value by 0500UT and then remained
close to the normal value during the rest of the day. Solar
activity is expected to remain at high levels during the next
few days.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
11/1615UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 77 6776 5443
Learmonth 75 5676 7343
Culgoora 68 6676 5443
Canberra 86 6777 5443
Hobart 77 6677 5444
Casey(Ant) 78 6865 5444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 70
Planetary 100
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 30 2253 4555
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 75 Active to sever storm.
13 Sep 50 Active to major storm, isolated periods of sever
storm.
14 Sep 30 Active to minor storm, isolated periods of major
storm.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may rise upto major and sometimes
sever storm levels on 12 September due a to a CME activity recorded
on 10 September. The effect of a recurrent coronal hole and the
ongoing transient flow may also keep the geomagnetic activity
enhanced upto minor and sometimes major storm levels during the
following two days.
A moderate (54nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer
data at 1123UT on 11 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 08 09 2005 0235UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal-fair Normal-poor Poor
13 Sep Normal-fair Normal-poor Poor
14 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: More shortwave fadeouts may be observed during the next
few days. HF conditions are expected to show moderate to strong
degradations on high and some mid latitude locations during the
next two days. Mild to moderate degrdations are possible on low
latitudes also during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to
30%
13 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to
15%
14 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions may show mild to moderate degradations
in Aus/NZ regions, especially in the southern regions, during
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.4E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 280 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 87800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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