[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 10 09:53:02 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 08/2306UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0219UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0237UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X1.2 0300UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M6.2 0550UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
X3.6 0959UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.9 1751UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
X6.2 2004UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity High to very high High to very high High to very high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very high on 09 September as
region 808(S09E53) produced several X, M and C-class flares.
The details of the major flares are as follows: M1.0(0219UT),
M1.1(0236UT), X1(0300UT), M1.8(0503UT), M6.2(0548UT), X3.6(0959UT),
M1.9(1751UT) and X6.2(2004UT). Due to particle contamination
and unavailability of some LASCO images no CME activity could
be associated to these flares. However, a Type II and a Type IV
radio bursts seem to be associated with the X6.2 flare with an
estimated shock speed of 959 km/s. Region 808 remains large
in size (approx 1400 millionth of the visible disk area) and
magnetically very complex. It can produce more major flares
during the next few days. The anticipated shock from the very
bright and fast CME, that was associated to the X17 flare on
07 September, seems to have arrived around 1315UT when the solar
wind speed and Bz showed considerable variations and a sudden
impulse (30 nT) was recorded by the Boulder magnetometer soon
after the arrival of this shock. The >10MeV proton event that
started at 0235UT/08 September and the >100MeV proton event
that started at 1925UT/08 September are expected to continue
for the next two days. The solar wind speed remained
close to 350 km/s until the arrival of the CME shock at 1315UT
and then both fast (450km/s) and slow (270 km/s) particles seem
to have been received during the rest of the UT day. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained close to the normal value almost the whole day
until around 1300UT and showed mild to moderate fluctuations
during the rest of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to
remain at high to very high levels during the next few days.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1316UT on
09 Sep. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 09/1245UT, which can be a precursor to
increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 16 2212 5433
Learmonth 17 2213 5433
Culgoora 15 3212 5333
Canberra 14 1212 5333
Hobart 13 2212 4433
Casey(Ant) 24 33-3 5443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 3211 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 16 Mostly unsettled to active, minor storm periods
possible.
11 Sep 23 Mostly unsettled to active, minor and isolated
major storm periods possible.
12 Sep 18 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected
during the next three days with possibility of minor storm
periods on 10 September and minor to isolated major storm
periods on 11 September due to CME activities from a very
active region on the visible disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 08 09 2005 0235UT and is
in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
11 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
12 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts continued to be observed today
also due to flare activities on a very active region on the
visible solar disk. As more major flares are expected from
this region, more shortwave fadeouts may be observed during
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to
10%
11 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to
15%
12 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on
7 September and is current for interval 8-10 September (SWFs).
Due to a good possibility of strong flare activities from a
very active region, short wave fadeouts may be observed during
the day time during in the next few days. Also minor to moderate
depressions in MUFs may also be observed in Aus/NZ regions during
the next three days due to an anticipated rise in the geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 47400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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