[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 28 09:26:10 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours
with no flare activity. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 520km/s to 460 km/s by the time of this report.
The currently going on coronal hole effect is expected to keep
the solar wind stream strengthened on 28 and possibly on
29 October. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the normal value throughout
the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 2111 3321
Darwin 7 2211 3311
Learmonth 7 2111 3321
Culgoora 7 2111 3311
Canberra 7 2111 3321
Hobart 6 2011 2321
Casey(Ant) 12 3333 2322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 50 (Unsettled)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1232 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
29 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled
30 Oct 8 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to show a gradual
decline during the next three days with quiet to unsettled
conditions on 28 and 29 October with some possibility of
isolated active periods on 28 October. Mostly quiet periods
are expected on 30 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
to fair at most locations during the next two days due to an
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on these days. The
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most
locations on the third day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degrdations and depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 7 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10%.
29 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions are possible in the Aus/NZ regions during
the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 169000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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