[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 27 09:45:15 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours
with no flare activity. The solar wind speed increased from
440km/s at 0000UT to 550km/s at 1300UT and then showed slight
decrease by the time of this report. This increase in solar
wind speed is due the effect of a coronal hole. This effect
may continue to keep the solar wind stream strengthened
during the next two days. The north south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to mild
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value for most
part of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to
remain at very low levels during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 2131 2222
Darwin 5 2221 221-
Learmonth 9 2221 3332
Culgoora 7 2132 2222
Canberra 6 1131 2221
Hobart 6 2031 2221
Casey(Ant) 9 3-32 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 19 4344 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
28 Oct 12 Quiet to unsettled
29 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the next three
days with possibility of isolated active conditions on
27 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at most locations during the next three days. However, periods
of minor to mild degradations are also possible at high and
some mid latitude locations during the next two days due to
an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%.
28 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10%.
29 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on
26 October and is current for interval 26-27 October. Minor
to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
are possible in the Aus/NZ regions during the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 98800 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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