[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 29 09:21:10 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours
with no flare activity. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 460km/s to 410 km/s by the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained close to the normal value throughout the UT day
today. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 1112 3111
Darwin 4 1112 2111
Learmonth 5 1112 3121
Culgoora 5 1112 3111
Canberra 5 1112 3111
Hobart 4 1012 3111
Casey(Ant) 9 2-32 3121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3001 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 7 Quiet
30 Oct 5 Quiet
31 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to show
further gradual decline during the next two days. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected during the next three days
with some possibility of isolated unsettled conditions
on 29 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
to fair at most locations during the next two days. The
lack of solar activity during the last few days seems to
have weakend the ionosphere and, thereofore, even a slight
rise in the geomagnetic activity seems to have caused
noticeable degradations in the HF conditions. Similar
ionospheric conditions can be expected to continue during
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 8 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 14 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 14 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions are possible in the Aus/NZ regions during
the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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