[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Oct             25 Oct             26 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with 
no flare activity. Conditions are expected to remain like this 
while there are no regions of considerable size or magnetic complexity 
currently on disc. The solar wind velocity ranged between 360km/s 
and 380km/s for the UT day. There is an expected increase in the solar 
wind paramters due to the geoeffective coronal hole over the next
24 hours. The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) fluctuated between neutral and 5nT throughout the UT day. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2111 1111
      Darwin               4   2111 1211
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Culgoora             3   1111 1111
      Canberra             3   1111 2111
      Hobart               3   1111 1111
      Casey(Ant)           7   33-2 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   4210 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
25 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
26 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Unsettled to Active conditions are expected over the next 2 days 
due to anticipated elevated solar wind stream parameters from 
a geoeffective coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions for HF Propagation are expected 
for low to mid latitudes, with possible degradations for high 
latitudes over the next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Oct    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Oct    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
25 Oct    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
26 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly good HF conditions observed over all local regions 
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 
the next 2 days, with possible depressed periods for Southern 
Aust. and NZ regions due to coronal hole effects. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    77500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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