[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 23 09:46:22 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no flare activity. Conditions are expected to remain like this
while there are no regions of considerable size or magnetic
complexity are currently on disc. The solar wind velocity has
increased from 340km/s at the beginning of the UT day, and is
currently just below 400km/s. Solar wind velocity is expected
to increase over the next 24 hours due to the equatorial position
coronal hole that is now in geoeffective position. The north
south component of the interpanetary magnetic field (Bz)
fluctuated between +/-5nT throughout the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 4211 1012
Darwin 6 4211 1012
Learmonth - ---- ----
Culgoora 4 3211 1012
Canberra 7 4221 1012
Hobart 4 3210 1112
Casey(Ant) 12 44-2 1122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
24 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
25 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours, apart from a brief Active period between 0000UT and
0200UT after Bz went southward. Unsettled to Active conditions
are expected over the next 2 days due to anticipated elevated
solar wind stream parameters from a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions for HF Propagation are expected
for low to mid latitudes, with possible degradations for high
latitudes over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
24 Oct 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
25 Oct 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly good HF conditions observed over all local regions
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 2 days, with possible depressed periods for Southern
Aust. and NZ regions due to coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 14800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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