[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Oct             26 Oct             27 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with 
no flare activity. Similar conditions are expected over the next 
few days, as there are no regions of considerable size or magnetic 
complexity currently on disc. The solar wind velocity ranged 
between 310km/s and 380km/s throughout the UT day, and has not 
reached the elevated levels expected from the recent geoeffective 
coronal hole. The north south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-3nT throughout the 
UT day. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2111 2222
      Darwin               4   2111 2211
      Learmonth            5   2111 2223
      Culgoora             4   --11 2212
      Canberra             4   1101 222-
      Hobart               2   1000 2112
      Casey(Ant)           9   33-2 2121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            74   (Active)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Oct     7    Quiet 
27 Oct     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Predominently Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected over 
the next 2 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions for HF Propagation are expected 
for all regions, except for possible degradations over mid-high 
latitudes during the next 24 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Oct    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Oct    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
26 Oct    25    near predicted monthly values 
27 Oct    25    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly good HF conditions observed over all local regions 
during the last 24 hours, except for depressed conditions during
local day for Southern Aust and NZ regions. Similar, but improving 
conditions, are expected over the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+05 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    81100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"