[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 7 09:41:39 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the previous UT day
with just one B-class X-ray flare of magnitude B2.1 at 0603Z.
Background solar X-ray flux was very low over the previous 24
hours. Region 813 decayed slightly over the period and has been
reclassified as DAI beta. This region has the potential to produce
isolated C-class flares. Overall solar activity is expected to
be low to very low over the next 24 hours. No new regions were
numbered. The recurrent equatorial coronal hole currently passing
solar central meridian should be geoeffective late on Saturday
08 Oct. Currently the solar wind speed remains slow at ~310km/s,
and IMF Bz was oscillating about 0 at the time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 1111 2211
Darwin 3 1110 1211
Learmonth 2 1000 1210
Culgoora 3 1111 2111
Canberra 3 1101 2111
Hobart 2 1001 2111
Casey(Ant) 9 3332 2212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0110 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 5 Quiet
08 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Oct 20 active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field has been quiet over the UT day,
conditions which are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.
The solar wind speed remains at low levels and the IMF Bz was
oscillating about 0nT at the time of this report. These quiet
geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue through to Saturday
08 Oct, increasing to active late on Sat 08 Oct due to the arrival
of a high speed coronal hole wind stream associated with the
recurrent equatorial coronal hole currently passing solar central
meridian. Active conditions with isolated minor storm periods,
particularly at high latitudes are possible late Sat 08 Oct continuing
through Sun 09 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Isolated periods of depression were observed at low
latitudes over the UT day, otherwise conditions were mostly normal.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions to continue through to late
Saturday 08 Oct with subsequent periods of degradation possible
on 09 Oct in association with the expected elevation in geomagnetic
activity levels on that day. Further depressions at low latitudes
possible over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 26 Depressed 15-20% Equatorial/N.Aus region, Near
predicted monthly values elsewhere
08 Oct 23 near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 11 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Expect generally normal HF conditions until late Sat 08 Oct,
with variable depressions continuing in the Equatorial/N Aus
regions. Isolated disturbances possible in the Antarctic region
associated with periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity. Depressed
conditions expected on 09 Oct in response to increased geomagnetic
activity levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 27800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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