[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 8 09:39:15 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the previous UT day
with just one B-class X-ray flare of magnitude B1.0 at 0649Z.
Background solar X-ray flux was very low over the previous 24
hours. Region 813 decayed slightly over the period and is now
a CAI beta-gamma with a very weak gamma structure. This region
may still produce isolated C-class flares. Solar activity is
expected to continue at low to very low levels over the next
24 hours. No new regions were numbered. A recurrent equatorial
coronal hole has moved into geoeffective position. The solar
wind at ACE has been steadily increasing in velocity since 10UT,
and was just over 400km/s at time of this report, which may be
the commencement of a high speed solar wind stream associated
with the coronal hole. IMF Bz at ACE showed an extended period
of southward orientation between 1830 and 2130Z, resulting in
enhanced geomagnetic activity levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 2122 2233
Darwin 7 2122 2233
Learmonth 8 2212 2333
Culgoora 6 1112 2233
Canberra 6 0122 2233
Hobart 5 1011 2233
Casey(Ant) 12 3-33 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 16 active
09 Oct 20 active
10 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet until ~10UT when
it became unsettled in response to a steady increase in solar
wind velocity. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are
expected to prevail for the next 24-48 hours in reponse to a
coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
09 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated periods of depression were observed at low
latitudes over the UT day, particularly during the local nighttime,
otherwise conditions were mostly normal. Expect slightly depressed
HF conditions to prevail over the next 24-48 hours, particularly
at high latitudes in response to elevated geomagnetic activity
levels. Further isolated and variable depressions at low latitudes
possible over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 19 Variably depressed to 20% Equatorial/N.Aus region,
Near predicted monthly values elsewhere
09 Oct 15 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Oct 23 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions,
otherwise mostly normal HF conditions observed over the past
24 hours. Expect mildly depressed HF conditions over the next
24-48 hours, particularly in the NZ/S.Aus/Antarctic regions in
response to elevated geomagnetic activity levels, with variable
depressions continuing in the Equatorial/N.Aus regions. Isolated
disturbances possible in the Antarctic region associated with
periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 26300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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