[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 6 09:44:21 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the previous UT day with
just one C-class X-ray flare of magnitude C1.4 at 0822Z. Region
813 continues to grow in size and complexity and is now classed
as DAC beta-gamma. This region is likely to produce further C-class
flares with the possibility of an isolated M-class flare. Old
region 808 has rotated onto the visible disk (S09E69) however
there are currently no visible sunspots in this region. Background
solar X-ray flux decreased over the UT day. An equatorial coronal
hole is visible in SOHO EIT imagery extending east of the central
meridian which could produce elevated solar wind speeds in 2-3
days time. Currently the solar wind speed remains slow at ~340km/s
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1111
Darwin 3 1111 1111
Learmonth 2 1111 0110
Culgoora 4 1112 2111
Canberra 1 0001 2001
Hobart 3 1011 2111
Casey(Ant) 6 2232 1112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 5 Quiet
07 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field has been quiet over the UT day,
conditions which are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.
The solar wind speed remains at low levels and the IMF Bz was
just below 0nT at the time of this report. These quiet conditions
are expected to continue for the next 2-3 days until the possible
arrival on 08 Oct of a high speed coronal hole wind stream associated
with the coronal hole currently passing solar central meridian.
Isolated unsettled to active periods are possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Isolated periods of depression were observed at low
latitudes over the UT day, otherwise conditions were near the
monthly norm. Expect mostly normal HF conditions to continue
for the next two days with further mild depressions at low latitudes
possible during the day, mainly daytime and pre-dawn. Also possible
periods of degradation at high latitudes in association with
elevated geomagnetic levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 28 about 10% above predicted monthly values
07 Oct 30 about 10% above predicted monthly values
08 Oct 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus
regions. Extended periods of spread-F conditions observed NZ/Antarctic
regions. Expect generally normal HF conditions over the next
two days with variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus
regions. Isolated disturbances possible in the Antarctic region
associated with periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 54300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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