[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 5 09:38:10 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: East limb activity continues to increase as old region
808 rotates onto the visible disk. A large East-limb loop prominence
erution was observed on the Culgoora H-alpha imager at around
05UT. This was associated with an E-directed CME. Background
solar X-ray flux increased by almost an order of magnitiude with
the approach of old AR808 and the emergence of newly numbered
region 813 in the south-eastern quadrant. Region 813 appears
to have potential for C-class flare activity. Solar wind speed
continues to decline to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1111
Darwin 3 1211 1110
Learmonth 3 2101 1110
Culgoora 3 1111 2111
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 3 1111 2101
Casey(Ant) 6 2-32 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2322 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 5 Quiet
06 Oct 5 Quiet
07 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continues to decline to nominal levels.
There was a sustained interval of southward IMF Bz in the mid
part of the UT day leading to periods of unsettled and briefly
active geomagnetic activity at high latitudes only. Otherwise
geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Expect continuing quiet conditions
next three days, with isolated unsettled to active periods possible
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild daytime/pre-dawn depressions observed at low latitudes,
recovering post-dawn. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next
three days. Possible mild depressions at low latitudes, mainly
daytime and pre-dawn. Possible periods of degradation at high
latitudes in association with elevated geomagnetic levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 20 near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 25 near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable daytime/pre-dawn depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Extended periods of spread-F conditions observed
NZ/Antarctic regions. Expect generally normal to improving HF
conditions next three days with variable depressions possible
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Brief isolated disturbances possible
Antarctic region in association with intervals of geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 73800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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