[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 4 09:42:24 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar background X-ray flux remains at nominal levels.
Solar wind speed continues to decline to nominal levels. There
was a slow, SE-directed CME first visible in LASCO C3 imagery
at 02/12UT. This was a backside event, possibly originating from
old AR808, which is due to return to the visible disk on Oct
04. There was a narrow W-directed CME first visible in LASCO
C3 imagery at 03/2140, also a backside event. Some E limb brightening
and loop prominence activity is visible in LASCO EIT195 imagery,
indicating the imminent return of old AR808.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 2122 1112
Darwin 5 2222 1112
Learmonth 4 2122 1112
Culgoora 4 1222 1112
Canberra 1 10-- ----
Hobart 4 1222 111-
Casey(Ant) 10 3-42 2112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 4342 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continues to decline to nominal levels.
IMF Bz showed minor fluctuations about neutral over the UT day.
There were brief intervals of active geomagnetic conditions observed
at high latitudes only in the first half of the UT day. Otherwise
geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Expect continuing quiet conditions
next three days, with isolated unsettled to active periods possible
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild daytime/pre-dawn depressions observed at low latitudes,
recovering post-dawn. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next
three days. Possible mild depressions at low latitudes, mainly
daytime and pre-dawn. Possible periods of degradation at high
latitudes in association with elevated geomagnetic levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Variable daytime/pre-dawn depressions.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 22
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 12 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 15 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 15 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable daytime/pre-dawn depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions, extending at times to mid Aus latitudes. Intervals
of intense sporadic-E conditions observed at times in mid to
S Aus and Antarctic regions. Isolated periods of spread-F conditions
observed S Aus/Antarctic regions. Variable depressions possible
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Isolated disturbances possible Antarctic
region in association with geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 495 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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