[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 23 10:30:33 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Background solar X-ray flux continues to decline to
nominal levels as AR822 approaches the West limb. Some minor
CME activity was observed around the S/SE sector from 10-12UT.
This is again probably of backside origin.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 1122 2223
Darwin 5 2121 1224
Learmonth - ---- ----
Culgoora 5 1122 2223
Canberra 5 1122 2223
Hobart 5 1122 2223
Casey(Ant) 7 2-32 2212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2200 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 6 Quiet
24 Nov 5 Quiet
25 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: There was a period of sustained mildly southward bias
in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field over
the latter half of the UT day. Geomagnetic activity was limited
to intervals of unsettled conditions at high latitudes only.
Isolated periods of unsettled conditions possible today due to
persisting instability in some IMF field vectors.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed at low latitudes over the
UT day. Otherwise HF conditions mostly normalto mildly enhanced.
Expect mostly normal conditions next three days. Variable conditions
possible at low latitudes. Possible minor disturbances at high
latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 25 Near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 25 Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable conditions again observed Equatorial/PNG regions
with localised depressions/enhancements of lesser magnitude than
previous few days. Night-time enhancements observed Aus/NZ regions.
Periods of sporadic-E conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions,
especially local afternoon. Solar radio noise evident over the
past few days has declined to nominal levels. Expect mostly normal
HF conditions next three days with possible low latitude variability.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 52500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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