[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Nov             25 Nov             26 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              80/20
COMMENT: Background solar X-ray flux continues to slowly decline 
as AR822 approaches the West limb. AR822 is quiescent, as is 
AR823 preceding it on the west limb and AR824 trailing it on 
the east limb. No significant flare activity today. The IMF has 
been predominantly southwards from 02UT until a northward turning 
at 13UT associared with a solar wind temperature increase observed 
at the L1 point by ACE and a speed increase from 400 to 500km/sec. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2232 2211
      Darwin               6   2222 2212
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Culgoora             5   2221 2111
      Canberra             7   2232 2211
      Hobart               7   2232 1211
      Casey(Ant)          15   4442 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   0122 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Nov     6    Quiet 
25 Nov     6    Quiet 
26 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar IMF interplanetary magnetic field Bz was southwards 
from 01-13UT favouring merging with the geomagnetic field and 
enhancing high latitude magnetic activity. Merging did not last 
long enough for the enhancement to spread from polar to mid latitudes. 
IMF is currently near zero so quiescent conditions are expected 
although an extended southward period will enhance high latitude 
magnetic activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Both enhancements and depletions, particularly pre-dawn, 
observed at low latitudes over the UT day. Mid latitudes showed 
mild enhancements across the evening and night with a slight 
pre-dawn depression. Expect mostly normal conditions next three 
days with continuing mild variations possible at low latitudes. 
Possible minor disturbances at high latitudes in association 
with geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Nov    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Nov    23    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Nov    22    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 324 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    21000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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