[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 22 10:40:20 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels as AR822 continues
to decline. Solar radio noise evident over the past few days
has also declined to nominal levels.There was a full-halo CME
first visible in LASCO C3 imagery just after 21/00UT. This appears
to have originated from a back-side event. Recent CME activity
suggests a growing active back-side region.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 2322 2111
Darwin 5 2221 2112
Learmonth - ---- ----
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 4 1221 1111
Hobart 7 3222 2111
Casey(Ant) 11 3432 2111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1232 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Nov 6 Quiet
24 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: With the passage of a solar sector boundary crossing,
fluctuations in the Phi component of the interplanetary magnetic
field have preceded brief unsettled to active intervals at polar
cusp and cap latitudes only. Elsewhere the geomagnetic field
was generally quiet. There is a chance of isolated brief unsettled
to active periods at high latitudes on day one, otherwise expect
mostly quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed at low latitudes over
the UT day. Mild daytime depressions observed at some mid latitudes.
Otherwise HF conditions mostly normal. Expect mostly normal conditions
next three days. Variable conditions possible at low latitudes.
Possible minor disturbances at high latitudes in association
with geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Variable localised depressions over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 21 November
and is current for interval 21-22 November. Variable conditions
again observed Equatorial/PNG regions with occasionally deep
depressions. Mild daytime depressions extending into Central/W
Aus region. Normal to slightly enhanced conditions S Aus/Antarctic
region. Daytime sporadic-E conditions observed at some stations.
Solar radio noise evident over the past few days has declined
to nominal levels. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next three
days with continuing low latitude variability.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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