[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0902UT, 
on 29 May. The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mildly south until 21UT, afterwhich it became southward by 
almost 20nT. Such southward IMF conditions are associated with 
increased geomagnetic activity. The shock was probably from recent 
coronal mass jection activity. Solar wind speed is currently 
moderately elevated at 550km/sec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2233 2234
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Culgoora            10   2233 2234
      Canberra            10   2233 2234
      Hobart              10   2233 2233
      Casey(Ant)          12   3333 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   1322 2444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May    20    active 
31 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active, with minor storm periods are expected today 
if southward IMF conditions persist following sudden impulse. 
A weak (19nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0954UT on 29 May. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditins expected for mid to high latitudes 
today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 May    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May    40   near predicted to 15% enhanced (northern Aus)
30 May    15   depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted (southern Aus)
31 May    35    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Regional MUFs at time of issue of this report have not 
become depressed after local dawn, possibly due to seasonal factors. 
However, depressions may be experienced for southern Aus/NZ later 
today or the next day if geomagnetic and southward IMF (see solar 
section) activity persists. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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