[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 May             30 May             31 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48

A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0330UT 
on 28 May. Mildly southward IMF conditions observed over the
UT day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   0221 1333
      Learmonth            9   1322 1333
      Culgoora             7   0221 1332
      Canberra             7   0221 1332
      Hobart               6   0211 1333
      Casey(Ant)           7   0321 1233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   ---- ----     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 May    18    active 
30 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
31 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 26 May and 
is current for interval 28-29 May. Moderately disturbed conditions 
expected during forecast period, isolated minor storm periods 
may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 May    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 May    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
30 May    15    Near predicted monthly values 
31 May    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 26 May 
and is current for interval 29 May only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 295 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    15100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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