[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 05

Sat May 28 09:55:20 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2F    1230UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May:  96/43

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1201 1000
      Learmonth            1   1101 1000
      Culgoora             1   0101 1000
      Canberra             2   0300 1000
      Hobart               0   0100 1000
      Casey(Ant)           3   2211 1100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   1101 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May    22    active 
29 May    21    active 
30 May    17    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 26 May and 
is current for interval 28-29 May. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions 
expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 May    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May    15    Near predicted monthly values 
29 May    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
30 May    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 26 May 
and is current for interval 29 May only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    42900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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