[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 31 09:13:38 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: **RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was southward by up to 20nT 00 to 18 UT, following yesterdays
weak shock arrival(s). Solar wind speed varied between 500 and
440km/sec. Solar activity is expected to be low today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Unsettled to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 40 3355 6543
Learmonth 43 3355 6554
Culgoora 42 2355 6553
Canberra 47 3355 66-4
Hobart 46 2355 66-3
Casey(Ant) 21 3443 4433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 60
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22 3433 2336
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jun 8 Quiet
02 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Southward IMF conditions increased during local night
hour intensifying geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels today. Recurrence
suggests quiet conditions on June 1 and 2.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Fair Poor-fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were degraded more strongly than expected
at high mid to latitudes. Depressed and degraded MUFs expected
for mid to high latitudes today following overnight geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Enhanced by 60% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day at most
sites. MUFs at Hobart were 30% depressed during the local
day. Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn this morning.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 40 near to 15% above monthly values (northern Aus)
31 May -10 depressed 20 to 30% (Southern Aus/NZ)
01 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 30 May
and is current for interval 31 May only. Northern Aus region
MUFs were enhanced yesterday particularly during local night
hours, probably in association with overnight geomagnetic storm
activity. Southern region MUFs have become depressed after local
(particularly at Christchurch and Hobart) dawn this morning,
and are expected to gradually recover later today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 80800 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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