[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 25 09:24:43 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today as well.
Only a few B-class flares were noticed mainly from region
767(S08E39). This region has shown some growth over the
last 24 hours and there is some possibility that this
region may produce isolated C-level activity. The solar
wind speed remained between 420 km/s and 460 km/s for
most part of the day today. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained mildly
northwards until around 1600UT and then showed minor
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value during the
rest of the UT day today. The solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 2 1110 1011
Learmonth 2 1110 1010
Culgoora 1 1100 1011
Canberra 0 0000 1012
Hobart 0 0000 1011
Casey(Ant) 5 1222 1211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2111 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
26 May 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
27 May 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels with some possibility of isolated
unsettled periods on 25 and 26 May. Isolated active periods
may be observed on 27 May as a recurrent high speed coronal
hole is expected to take a geoeffective position around that
time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most locations with some possibility of minor to mild
depressions and degradation on high latitudes on 25 and
26 May. Moderate degradations are possible on high latitudes
on 27 May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity
on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
26 May 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
27 May 23 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions on 25 and 26 May. Minor degradations
are possible at times in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 27 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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