[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 24 09:21:26 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. Only a
few small B-class flares were noticed mainly from region
766(N15E48). This region has shown some decay over the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed remained between 430 km/s
and 450 km/s almost the whole day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained
mildly northwards almost the whole day today. Some southward
orientation in Bz was recorded around mid-day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 4 1111 2211
Learmonth 4 1111 2211
Culgoora 5 3100 2211
Canberra 2 1000 2210
Hobart 2 0100 2210
Casey(Ant) 7 2322 2211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 4234 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
25 May 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
26 May 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days with
some possibility of isolated unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most locations during the next 3 days with some possibility
of minor to mild depressions and degradation on high latitudes
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of minor to significant degrdations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
25 May 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
26 May 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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