[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 23 09:28:45 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. No
significant activity has been noticed today. The solar
wind speed remained around 420 km/s almost the whole
day today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained mildly southwards until
around 1400 UT and then showed minor fluctuations on both
sides of the normal value during the rest of the day. The
solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 7 2222 3111
Learmonth 7 2222 3110
Culgoora 7 2222 3111
Canberra 7 2222 3111
Hobart 8 2122 4110
Casey(Ant) 8 3322 2111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 21 3444 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
24 May 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
25 May 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days with
possibility of unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most locations during the next 3 days with some possibility
of minor to mild depressions and degradation on high latitudes
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day with periods
of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
24 May 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
25 May 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 30400 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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