[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 May             27 May             28 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions decline over the UT day from 440 
to 350km/sec. No significant solar flare activity was observed. 
A north polar extension coronal hole now located at solar central 
meridian appears to be much narrower in US SEC SXI imagery on 
this rotation, so solar wind stream sigture of this coronal hole 
is expected to be less significant on this rotation. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2221 1000
      Learmonth            3   2121 0100
      Culgoora             1   1110 0000
      Canberra             3   2220 1000
      Hobart               2   2120 1000
      Casey(Ant)           6   2322 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1111 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 May     7    Quiet 
27 May    12    Unsettled 
28 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests unsettled to active conditions 27-28 
May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 May    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 May    30    near predicted monthly values 
27 May    30    near predicted monthly values 
28 May    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    63400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"