[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 7 09:41:35 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1128UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours.
Region 756 produced a C9.3 flare at 0300UT and a M1.3 class flare
at 1110UT. Region 758 was the source of a long duration C8.5
class flare at 1605UT which resulted in a full halo CME. The
IMF north-south Bz component was mostly northward for the first
half of the UT day, after which it fluctuated between +/-5nT.
Solar wind speed showed a step increase from 320km/s to 380km/s
at 0400UT after which it began to steadily rise to be 430km/s
at the time of this report. Region 756 and Region 758 did not
undergo any growth in size or magnetic complexity over the last
24 hours. M class events still possible in the next few days.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1202UT
on 06 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 2 1100 2111
Learmonth 5 1200 3210
Culgoora 3 1100 2212
Canberra 2 1000 2112
Hobart 2 1000 2111
Casey(Ant) 5 2221 1121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1113 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 May 15 Unsettled to Active
09 May 25 active
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns suggest quiet geomagnetic
conditions for the next 24 hours. Active conditions expected
from 08May due to CME and geoeffective coronal hole effects.
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1309UT on 06 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 May Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions should be normal over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 45 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
09 May 35 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Possible
degraded conditions for 08May-09May from expected CME and coronal
hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 53300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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