[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
+++ CORRECTED COPY - SOLAR COMMENT +++
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: The IMF north-south Bz component observed at the ACE 
spacecraft turned northward at 15UT and returned to near zero 
at 22UT. This signifies the end of the extended merging conditions 
with the geomagnetic field which was driving the polar ionosphere. 
Solar wind speed varied between 340-380 km/sec, slightly below 
average. The solar wind density was slightly above average and 
the temperature slightly below average. Several C-class flares 
and type III radio bursts were observed including a C7.8 flare 
from AR756 with a co-incident coronal mass ejection on the limb 
observed by the SOHO spacecraft. AR756 is decaying whilst AR758 
is growing in size and magnetic complexity and transiting towards 
the solar central meridian. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1212 1110
      Learmonth            4   1212 1211
      Culgoora             3   1111 1110
      Canberra             3   1111 1110
      Hobart               4   1112 2110
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 1211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   3311 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May     7    Quiet 
07 May     5    Quiet 
08 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns suggest quiet geomagnetic 
conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be normal over the next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 May    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    35    Near predicted monthly values 
07 May    38    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 May    36    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    55100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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