[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1212 1110
      Learmonth            4   1212 1210
      Culgoora             3   1111 1110
      Canberra             3   1111 1110
      Hobart               4   1112 2110
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 1211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   3311 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May     7    Quiet 
07 May     5    Quiet 
08 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns suggest quiet geomagnetic 
conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be normal over the next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 May    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    35    Near predicted monthly values 
07 May    38    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 May    36    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    55100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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