[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: The north-south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic 
Field was consistently southward around -2nT over the last 24hrs 
encouraging steady reconnection with the geomagnetic field. Solar 
wind speed started the day at over 450km/sec, then decreased 
to 350km/sec by the end of the 24hr period. The solar wind density 
was slightly low and the temperature low trending to average. 
Only one C-class flare from AR758 was observed and a few B-class 
flares from AR756 and AR758 with type III radio bursts. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1210 1111
      Learmonth            4   1210 1221
      Culgoora             2   1110 1111
      Canberra             3   1210 1111
      Hobart               2   0200 1111
      Casey(Ant)           5   1221 1221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   3223 3321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 May     5    Quiet 
07 May     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns suggest quiet geomagnetic 
conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions should be normal over the next 24 hours 
except perhaps at high latitudes where the ionosphere is active 
due to reconnection of the IMF with the geomagnetic field. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 May    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May    40    near predicted monthly values/enhanced 10 to 
                15%. 
06 May    40    Near predicted monthly values 
07 May    52    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 506 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   184000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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