[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 8 09:38:03 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0813UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with a M1 class event at 0810UT the only notable event. A non
earth directed CME was observed in association with this flare.
The IMF north-south Bz component was mostly northward for the
first half of the UT day, fluctuating between neutral and 5nT.
Solar wind speed showed a declining trend, falling from 420km/s
at the beginning of the UT day. Region 756 did not undergo any
growth in size or change in magnetic complexity over the last
24 hours. M class events still possible in the next few days.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
07/1230UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 4 1121 2123
Learmonth 7 2122 2133
Culgoora 4 1111 2123
Canberra 4 1111 2123
Hobart 3 1111 2023
Casey(Ant) 9 2332 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1001 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 15 Unsettled to Active
09 May 20 active
10 May 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active conditions possible over the next
24 hours with Active conditions possible for 09May due to 06May
earth directed CME and a geoeffective coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be normal over the next 2 days
with the possibility of degraded periods for low to mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
09 May 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
10 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
2 days, but with the increasing chance of degraded periods for
Southern Aust. and NZ regions due to expected geomagnetic storm
effects from 06May earth directed CME and coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 56200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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