[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 25 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   2343 3323
      Learmonth           11   2233 3323
      Culgoora            13   2342 3322
      Canberra            12   1342 3323
      Hobart              12   1342 3323
      Casey(Ant)          17   -434 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   0111 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar    22    active 
27 Mar    16    active 
28 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
27 Mar    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
28 Mar    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"