[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1111 3122
      Learmonth            5   1111 3122
      Culgoora             4   0101 3121
      Canberra             4   0101 3122
      Hobart               2   0101 2111
      Casey(Ant)           7   2232 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1000 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Mar    11    Unsettled 
27 Mar    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 21 March and 
is current for interval 24-25 March. Mild activity, with isolated 
active periods may be experienced during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Mar    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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