[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1111 2122
      Learmonth            5   2122 2122
      Culgoora             4   1111 2121
      Canberra             4   1111 2122
      Hobart               4   1111 2221
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0010 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active 
25 Mar    13    Unsettled to Active 
26 Mar    17    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 21 March and 
is current for interval 24-25 March. Moderately disturbed conditions 
expected during forecast period, isolated minor storm periods 
may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Mar    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar    35    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
25 Mar    35    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Mar    35    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    44100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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