[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 05

Wed Mar 23 10:55:18 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar:  87/30

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Mar             24 Mar             25 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20
COMMENT: Very low activity over the past 24 hours. Solar region 
745 in the north-east solar quadrant only produced 1 very minor 
solar flare. Solar wind conditions nominal over past 24 hours. 
A coronal hole now just east of solar central meridian is expected 
to cause increased solar wind speeds from about mid 24 Mar. A 
solar filament in the south east solar quadrant slowly faded 
from the soalr disk yesterday. No radio sweep signature has been 
observed around the time of the event so no coronal mass ejection 
is presumed to have occurred. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 1101
      Learmonth            3   2111 1102
      Culgoora             2   1110 1101
      Canberra             1   1110 1001
      Hobart               0   0110 0001
      Casey(Ant)           7   2332 1111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1113 4211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Mar    11    Unsettled 
25 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 21 March and 
is current for interval 24-25 March. Quiet conditions expected 
next two days, 27 day recurrent patterns suggest active periods 
are probable 24-25 Mar. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation at high latitudes 24-25 Mar due to 
coronal hole wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Mar    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for next two days. Mild 
depression may be experienced southern Aus/NZ region 25-26 Mar. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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