[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 26 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2344 3222
      Learmonth           14   2234 3332
      Culgoora            13   2334 3222
      Canberra            20   2345 4321
      Hobart              18   2345 3222
      Casey(Ant)          17   3444 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              77   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18   1453 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar    13    Unsettled to Active 
28 Mar    11    Unsettled 
29 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Mar    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
28 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 26 March 
and is current for interval 26-27 March. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 581 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:   283000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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