[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Mar             10 Mar             11 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained high over the past 24 hours, 
reaching 800km/s before finishing the day at around 700km/s. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
remained close to neutral. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
08/1430UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 08 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3343 3333
      Darwin              15   3333 3333
      Learmonth           18   4333 4333
      Culgoora            15   3343 3233
      Canberra            18   3344 3333
      Hobart              21   3354 3333
      Casey(Ant)          23   4543 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             131   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             42   5564 4454     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Mar    20    mostly unsettled to active, with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
10 Mar    15    Unsettled to active 
11 Mar     5    Quiet to unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Fair           Fair           Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Mar    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values 
10 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values 
11 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 6 March 
and is current for interval 7-9 March. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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