[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 10 10:49:39 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A few B-class
and two low C-class flares were observed, the largest
being a C1.8 flare at 0241UT from region 741(N12E02).
The solar wind stream is still going strong due to the
currently going on coronal hole effect. The solar wind
speed remained between 650 and 750 km/s throughout the
day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) showed minor to mild fluctuations
(upto approx. +/-6nT) on both sides of the normal value
almost the whole day. Region 742(S06E42) has shown some
growth over the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low to low levels during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 18 3333 3443
Darwin 15 3-32 3432
Learmonth 16 3333 3433
Culgoora 16 3333 3433
Canberra 18 3333 3443
Hobart 18 3333 3443
Casey(Ant) 37 4553 3643
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 86 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 26 4553 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 14 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
11 Mar 11 Mostly unsettled.
12 Mar 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Coronal hole-induced geomagnetic activity
is expected to show a gradual decline during the next three
days from unsettled and active levels on day one to mostly
quiet on day three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions may be expected to
remain mostly near normal in most low and mid-latitude
locations during the next three days. However, minor to
mild degradations may be possible on high latitudes during
this period due to an expected continued rise in the
geomagnetic activity during this period, especially on
day one and two.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations and depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 31
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 38 near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 42 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
12 Mar 46 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most locations around Aus/NZ regions during the
next three days. However, isolated periods of minor
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may
also be observed in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 10 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 728 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 286000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list