[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained high over the past 24 hours, 
ranging from 600km/s - 750km/s. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field remained close to neutral. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 07 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      32   3355 4453
      Darwin              23   3254 3443
      Learmonth           31   3245 4553
      Culgoora            22   2244 3543
      Canberra            32   3355 4453
      Hobart              29   3355 4443
      Casey(Ant)          35   4454 3463
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             128   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             45                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             36   5354 3545     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar    30    mostly unsettled to active, with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
09 Mar    25    mostly unsettled to active, with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
10 Mar    20    Unsettled to active. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 March and 
is current for interval 7-8 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Poor-fair      Poor-fair      Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
09 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
10 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Mar    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      15-30% enahnced at local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar Nth: 30  10-20% depressed southern Australian / NZ region, 
       Sth: 10  otherwise near predicted monthly values. 

09 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values

10 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 6 March 
and is current for interval 7-9 March. 
For 08 March, northern Australian users are recommended to use T=30.
Southern Australian users are recommended to use T=10. If 
communicating across northern/southern Australian, use T=10.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 554 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:   252000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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