[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 7 10:34:53 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind increased over the past 24 hours from around
400km/s to around 700km/s, due to a coronal hole. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained close
to neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: mostly unsettled to active, with
isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 20 4334 3433
Darwin - ---- ----
Learmonth 23 5334 3434
Culgoora 20 4334 3433
Canberra 24 4335 3443
Hobart 26 4345 3443
Casey(Ant) 32 5544 3533
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1322 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 25 mostly unsettled to active, with isolated minor
storm periods possible.
08 Mar 20 mostly unsettled to active, with isolated minor
storm periods possible.
09 Mar 20 mostly unsettled to active, with isolated minor
storm periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 March and
is current for interval 7-8 March. Coronal hole-induced geomagnetic
activity is expected to continue over the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Fair Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Fair Fair Fair-Poor
08 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
09 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 31
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 20 10-20% depressed southern Australian / NZ region.
08 Mar 20 10-20% depressed southern Australian / NZ region.
09 Mar 20 10-20% depressed southern Australian / NZ region.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 6 March
and is current for interval 8-9 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 39300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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