[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 29 09:34:15 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only a few
B-class flares were observed, mainly from region 781(N16E63).
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 390 to
370 km/s by 0800UT and then gradually increased to little
over 400 km/s by 2300UT. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the
normal value almost the whole day today. The effect of
another coronal hole is expected to strengthen the solar
wind stream for about three days starting from 01 July.
The solar activity is expected to remain very low to low
during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1111
Learmonth 3 1211 1011
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 1 1110 0001
Hobart 2 1011 1111
Casey(Ant) 4 1212 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1001 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 7 Quiet
30 Jun 7 Quiet
01 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled with possibility of active
periods.
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected on 29 and 30 June.
The effect of a recurrent high speed coronal hole solar
wind stream may raise the geomagnetic activity to unsettled
and some times active levels on 01 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may show some degradations on high
latitude locations on 01 July due to the possibility of
some enhancements in the geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 28 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5%.
30 Jun 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5%.
01 Jul 27 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days with some
possibility of minor to mild degrdations in Southern Aus/NZ
regions at times on 01 July due to an expected possible rise
in the geomagnetic activity on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 62200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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