[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today with no notable flare 
activity. The solar wind speed ranged between 420km/s and 380km/s. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT over the entire UT day. A coronal 
hole extending from the northern hemisphere to the equator is expected 
to strengthen the solar wind stream from 01 July as it moves 
into geoeffective position. Solar activity is expected to remain 
very low to low levels during the next three days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2121 1101
      Learmonth            3   2121 1101
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             2   1111 1100
      Hobart               3   1111 1200
      Casey(Ant)           5   2222 2111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1111 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun     7    Quiet 
01 Jul    12    Unsettled 
02 Jul    20    active 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. 
Between 01July-03July the effects of a recurrent high speed coronal 
hole wind stream may raise the geomagnetic activity to Unsettled 
to Active levels with isolated Minor Storm periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may show some degradations at high latitude 
locations between 01July-03July due to expected elevated geomagnetic 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jun    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun    35    near predicted monthly values 
01 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values 
02 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in 
most Aus/NZ regions during the next two days. Possible minor 
to mild degradations in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 01July, and 
more so on 02July-03July, due to an expected increase in geomagnetic 
activity from a coronal hole. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    68000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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