[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 28 09:28:35 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several B-class and
one C2.8/0848 flares were observed. The C-flare came from a
new region 781(N16E75). The solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from 480 to 380 km/s during the UT day today as the
coronal hole effect weakened further. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained
close to the normal value almost the whole day today. The
effect of the CME observed on 25 June may keep the solar
wind stream slightly strengthened on 28 June. The solar
activity is expected to remain very low to low during the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 2112
Learmonth 1 1000 1111
Culgoora 11 133- ---3
Canberra 1 1000 2011
Hobart 2 1001 2011
Casey(Ant) 5 2211 2122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3322 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jun 7 Quiet
30 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: There is some possibility that the effect of the
earthward component of the CME observed on 25 June may
keep the geomagnetic activity slightly enhanced on 28 June,
especially if Bz stays southwards for sustained periods of
time. Quiet conditions are expected on 29 and 30 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions may show some degradations on high
latitude locations during the next 24 hours due to the
possibility of some enhancements in the geomagnetic activity
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 26 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 28 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5%.
30 Jun 28 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 555 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 147000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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